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For the third time in the past five seasons, Bubba Watson left Riviera Country Club on top of the leaderboard. If it wasn’t clear already that he owns this course, it is now. Coming off a 2017 season with many struggles, Bubba Watson looks like he might be back to his old self. Kevin Na backed his way into a T2 after a great weekend. Tony Finau joined him in second as he looked like the favorite the whole tournament but still turned out to be a solid DK option.
Patrick Cantlay also had a great week with a T4 finish, although it looked like the tournament was his through 11 holes on Sunday. Either way, rating out as the top DraftKings value on the DailyRoto projections sure turned out well. Scott Stallings turned in another great outing with a T4 as well and was right in the mix on Sunday. Hopefully, you were able to add him a few weeks back when he was my “Mulligan of the Week,” because he is probably long gone after his performance at the Genesis Open.
Some notable missed cuts this weekend included Ollie Schniederjans, Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman and Daniel Berger. Trusting heavily in Schniederjans and Berger did not pan out this week as they both looked like great plays on DraftKings. Leishman did not get a ton of hype leading into the Genesis but had not missed a cut all year. Same goes for Molinari. He rated out very well on DailyRoto but failed to make the cut for the first time this season. However, in such a deep field it is hard to expect all the top guys to make the cut.
Fowler’s Title Defense
This week the tour visits Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. for the Honda Classic. Rickie Fowler, the defending champ, leads the way this week at $11,700 followed by Rory McIlroy ($11,500), Justin Thomas ($11,300), Sergio Garcia ($10,500) and Alex Noren ($10,100). Of the top five, it seems as if Alex Noren just does not fit in. He has the worst value of everyone above $10,000 on DailyRoto’s projection model and is a bit overpriced. When paying up this week, look to Rickie Fowler. Since the first of the year, Fowler has made two of three cuts and finished no worse than T11. He rates out as the second-best value on DailyRoto for DraftKings and has the best chance to make the cut (85.98%). Garcia and Thomas make for a nice play in cash games while McIlroy and Noren are best suited for tournaments.
In the next range of players from $8,000-$10,000, we find Europeans Tyrrell Hatton ($9,500) and Tommy Fleetwood ($9,400) with the best odds of both winning and making the cut in this range. Though Fleetwood did not play here a year ago, he has already gotten his feet wet in the United States and is making his second straight start on Tour. He did make the cut last week resulting in a T37. Tyrrell Hatton, on the other hand, is making his first start this week on US soil. Hatton did produce here last year with a T4 and made himself known to the Fantasy Golf universe. Both players make for very intriguing plays on DraftKings, and the price tags might scare some away. Fleetwood has a slight edge over Hatton since he has already been here a week. DailyRoto has Fleetwood projected to carry about five percent lower ownership than Hatton and this is a spot where we are able to differentiate our lineups.
Other players to target from this range:
Daniel Berger ($8,800) is coming in at a discounted price after failing to make the cut at the Genesis Open. Don’t give up yet. He lost in a playoff here in 2015.
Brandt Snedeker ($8,700) sets up nicely here at PGA National. He’s off to a nice start making three consecutive cuts.
Martin Kaymer ($8,000) has made three of four cuts at the Honda Classic with a T4 last year. He offers a nice floor in DraftKings at this price point.
Grillo & An Top Mid-Range Targets
This next range of players is where you’ll find the values this week. The pricing seems to be very soft from $7,000-$8,000 as there is no need to drop down any further this week. It might alter what you do toward the top, but this is the range to exploit. With so many interesting names in this range, it is tough to pinpoint which direction to go.
According to the projection model on DailyRoto, Charles Howell III ($7,300), Adam Scott ($7,700) and Emiliano Grillo ($7,500) rate out as the top value plays from this range. With all three very much in play, Grillo is going to be the one to roll with this week. He has made the cut both times he has played here at the Honda Classic and has yet to miss a cut this season. Grillo is currently ranked ninth in Ball Striking and eighth in Total Driving this season. He only carries a 3.78 percent ownership projection on DailyRoto, so we shouldn’t expect too many people to be on him this week. He is a fine cash game play but even better as an under-owned tournament option. Charles Howell III and Adam Scott make for safe cash game options as we know their ability to make cuts. Scott comes in at a slightly lower value but seems more fit for the course. He has not finished worse than T14 here in his last three attempts. However, you cannot go wrong with either play here.
Byeong Hun An ($7,400) also makes for a nice play down in this range. An has a 65.09 percent chance to make the cut in DailyRoto’s Finish Probability model. He is currently ranked in the top five in both Ball Striking and Total Driving and 18th in Greens-in-Regulation. This is only Byeong Hun An’s second appearance since the first of the year. His first appearance was at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he finished T23. Start your teams with Byeong Hun An and work from there as he should be a staple in cash games.
Mulligan of the Week: HaoTong Li
Making his first appearance this past week at the Genesis Open, the now 37th ranked player in the world made the cut in his first appearance. Although it only resulted in a T53, Li showed flashes of his upside all week. Still just 22 years old, Li is worth a flier just for the ceiling he provides. HaoTong Li shot up in the world ranking this year after his big win at the end of January in Dubai. This was an absolutely loaded field and he was able to finish at the top of the leaderboard. He will not be playing in a large number of events like past mulligans, but he has the game to win in any field that he enters.
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This article originally apeared on RotoExperts.com
The odds were stacked against Ted Potter Jr. heading into the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Tied with the No. 1 ranked player in the world, Dustin Johnson, nobody really gave Potter a chance. The Web.com Tour grad and former winner on tour, Potter Jr. posted a tournament-low 62 on Saturday and held off Johnson by shooting 3-under on Sunday. Who would have thought that the first time in four weeks a tournament is decided in 72 holes would result in Potter Jr. pulling away from Johnson? Either way, it was a very impressive performance and Potter Jr. put himself on the Fantasy Golf radar.
I was very impressed by a few other performances as well. Chez Reavie is playing as good as anyone on Tour with two second place finishes in a row. Scott Stallings followed up his T23 at the Phoenix Open with a solo seventh place finish at Pebble Beach with a 66 on Sunday. Paul Casey made his 2018 debut with a T8, displaying his consistency in DFS. Casey will back his way into plenty of Top 10s but can’t seem to get a win, which lines up perfect for DraftKings. Looking back at last week’s 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Golf Picks, we were able to exploit the value under $7K, as six of the seven value plays made the cut.
Looking forward to this week, the Tour concludes its West Coast swing at the Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Open. Riviera is a Par 71 with more than half of its par 4s ranging from 450-500 yards. Driving distance and SG Approach will be key stats to look at when building your lineups. From top to bottom, this is the strongest field we have seen all year. There are many Europeans making their debut this week, including Tommy Fleetwood, Thomas Pieters, Martin Kaymer and Haotong Li.
Consider Paul Casey A Sneaky Top Tier Choice
Dustin Johnson leads the way again this week at $11,900. Since 2008, DJ has made the cut at Riviera eight of 10 times, with seven of those being Top 10 finishes (1, 4, T2, 2, CUT, T4, CUT, T3, T10, T59). That is as consistent as it gets and this is a whole different version of the Dustin Johnson who had success here in the past. According to DailyRoto’s Finish Probabilities Tool, DJ ranks far and above the rest with a 10.17 percent chance of winning outright, 44.84 percent chance to finish among the Top 10, and an 88.92 percent chance of making the cut. I am all in on DJ again this week.
Rounding out the rest of the over $10K players, we have Jordan Spieth ($11,300), Rory McIlroy ($11,100), Justin Thomas ($10,700) and Paul Casey ($10,200). Though I will be fading this group of players due to the amount of exposure I will have on DJ, I don’t mind Paul Casey. It looks as if Casey is the odd man out, priced with four of the Top 10 players in the world. This should leave many shying away from Casey.
DailyRoto’s Finish Probability Tool has Casey with the third-best odds of making the cut at 84.01 percent. As I mentioned earlier, Casey thrives in DFS because high finishes pay off. He has made five straight cuts here (T39, T39, T2, T12, T22) and showed he is in good form last week. Currently ranked first in both SG: Approach, and SG: Tee-To-Green, Casey makes for a nice play in both cash games and tournaments.
Opt In on Paul Berger’s Stable Floor and Fade Fleetwood
Into the next range just under $10K, there are going to be a lot of people on Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500). Though I am a fan of Fleetwood, he scares me since it’s his first tournament on US soil this season. I will, as always, be dropping down to Daniel Berger. I have been riding Berger all year and he has yet to disappoint. Berger has finished T14 or better in all three events he has played and has a very stable floor in cash games. The Finish Probability model on DailyRoto.com also gives Berger a slight advantage over Fleetwood in both making the cut and winning the tournament.
Plenty of High Caliber Mid-Range Values
Tony Finau is a great value at just $8,200. The course sets up nicely for him and he ranks as the 25th-best value on DailyRoto’s projection chart. Chez Reavie ($8,000) is playing too well to overlook right now and ranks as the 13th-best value on DraftKings. Patrick Cantlay seems way underpriced at $7,600 and DailyRoto has him as the best value. He has been priced in the $9,000 range lately and this is a good place to exploit this discount. I also like Ollie Schniederjans priced at $7,600. Schniederjans backed his way into a T3 at the Phoenix Open, and finished T8 here last year. He ranks 15th in both SG: Approach and Driving Distance. Both Adam Scott ($7,400) and Charles Howell III ($7,300) are great value plays for the high caliber players that they are. Scott struggled last week, but both are worth a look.
Seek Value Plays Below $7K
I always look for players whose names just don’t belong down here. The first one that stood out was Ryan Moore ($6,900). Although Moore has struggled recently, it is not right to price him down in this range. Still the 70th ranked player in the world, Moore only missed five cuts in 24 starts last season. He should not be priced below Vijay Singh and Camilo Villegas. I also like Harris English ($6,900) at this price point. Just two weeks ago at the Phoenix Open we were paying $8,100 for him, now he’s dropped over $1,200. Maybe it’s because he is coming off a missed cut in Phoenix, but English was one of the hottest golfers on Tour. I have no problem going right back to him at this price point.
Peter Uihlein ($6,900) shows up in this section far too often, but he has one of the highest probabilities of making the cut of anyone priced under $7,000 according to the Finish Probability model at 64.21 percent. This is the cheapest we have seen Bud Cauley ($6,700), as he joins the sub-$7K club for the first time this year. He also pops on the Finish Probability model with a 64.84 percent chance to make the cut; just a bit higher than Uihlein. However, Jamie Lovemark is the cheapest of them all at $6,600, with a 56.62 percent chance of making the cut. At this minimum price, Lovemark does not need to do much to return value. He has struggled early, but still has the right game for Riviera ranked at 30th in driving distance.
Mulligan of the Week
Troy Merritt — Finishing T8 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week was the perfect way for Merritt to put himself back on the map. After a quiet of couple years following his only win in 2015, Merritt showed some life this past weekend. Currently 33rd on the Web.com Tour graduate reshuffle, Merritt should find himself playing in plenty of tournaments. It was nice to see him put four whole rounds together and finish in the top 10. I’m not expecting Merritt to get a win this year, but I think he is worth a look in season-long leagues. It is a good sign to see him in the field this week at the Genesis Open. You can expect Merritt to play upwards of 28 times in 2018.
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